Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
